AFC Championship: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!

• Yes, the Colts are coming off a shellacking of the Ravens. Yes, the Colts are at home. Yes, the Colts are everybody’s favorite to go to the Super Bowl.
• But I’m sticking with the recipe of great defense and great rushing. The Jets have both. The Colts do not. Period. End of story. I said last week (and the week before) that great rushing and defense wins playoff games on the road. I’ll say it again.
• Is Peyton Manning better than Mark Sanchez? Of course he is. That's not the point. And that's not the right question. The Jets' schemes will contain and frustrate Peyton Manning. And the Colts' rushing game is mediocre at best.
• I still don’t like the Colts’ lying down the last two weeks (including one against the Jets) and the football gods will punish them. I keep waiting for the football gods to exact their revenge. This week seems pretty good to me.
• Also we know that Indy’s home field advantage is diminished since they moved to the new dome.
• Revis contains Wayne. I am worried about Dallas Clark. If the Colts win, Clark will have a huge day.
• For entertainment purposes only: With the Colts favored by a way-too-high 8.5 points, I do like the Jets to cover even if they don’t win outright.
• I'm not even going to touch the whole 1969 rematch thing. That's being covered elsewhere.
• Hint: this analysis was pretty much exactly the same as last week's against the Chargers. Just replace "Chargers" with "Colts" "Jackson" with "Wayne" and "Antonio Gates" with "Dallas Clark."

OCD Chick's Pick:  Jets over Colts

NFC Championship: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

• It's really hard for me to be objective here. I love New Orleans. In fact, you could say that I'm sort of obsessed. It's my favorite city in the U.S. I'm going to Jazz Fest for the third straight year and it will mark my 7th trip there. I've seen two Final Fours at the Super Dome and an actual Saints game. I've been to two Hornets playoff games. I volunteered in 2005 after Katrina. In other words, I'm THISCLOSE to getting a tattoo of "Who Dat".
  

  Who Dat!

• And my thoughts on He Who Shall Not Be Named are pretty well known at this point.
• But I believe this game will come down to home field advantage. Both teams have big-play capability, but the Saints are at home, and the crowd's insanity will be a real factor.
• It will be so loud there that Favre will be rattled. I'm predicting at least 4 false starts for the Vikings and a number of busted plays. Favre will make mistakes, and he'll throw at least one really bad interception (would a pick six to former Packer and Viking Darren Sharper be too much to ask?)
• Minnesota's defense had a fantastic day against Tony Romo and the Cowboys last week, and they are a solid unit. But I believe the same advantage the Minnesota D had last week will be enjoyed by the Saints' D this week: crowd noise.
• I issued this warning last week: takeaways can disappear. Saints had 26 takeaways this season, 3rd in NFL. But I think they force a few turnovers against the Vikings.
• Minnesota actually has a better chance of winning if they take the ball out of Favre's hands and give it to Adrian Peterson. But this is Favre's team now, for good or ill.
• BTW, if the Vikings win, I may not be able to watch any sports coverage until the day of the Super Bowl.
• I'll leave you with one final thought: Who Dat!!!!

OCD Chick's Pick: Saints over Vikings

Enjoy the games!  See you in two weeks for the Super Bowl.